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Gambling Stocks Gauge Outpaces S&P 500 July 13, 2003
With increasing casino table play and new strength in leisure travel, gaming stocks are again outpacing broader trading markets.
"The gaming stocks we follow are outperforming the S&P 500 2-1 and have for the past month," said Joe Greff, gaming analyst at Fulcrum Global Partners, an independent Wall Street investment research firm.
This week, the Dow Jones casino index increased 2.5 percent, closing at 288, double the increase in the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, which increased 1.26 percent. The casino index opened the week at 284 and the S&P opened at 985.70
For the year, the Dow Jones casino index has increased by 20 percent from an opening of 240, outstripping the S&P 500, which opened at 879.82, by 8 percentage points.
Wall Street analysts say the performance is based on industry fundamentals, which also bode well for the summer and fall in Las Vegas.
"We believe there is some upside to the second half estimates for the Las Vegas centric-operators. In our view, overall demand on the Strip appears to be turning around," Greff said.
"June has been an encouraging month in terms of operator trends. Missouri was the only jurisdiction that was a clunker. New Jersey, Iowa, Las Vegas room rates and operator fundamentals in general all seem to be doing better," Greff said.
Encouraging leisure and tour travel trends and a strong convention schedule are contributing to Wall Street optimism about the Strip, Greff said.
"In addition to a robust convention and special events calendar, we believe that (room) rates have benefited from travelers substituting domestic vacations like Las Vegas for overseas trips due to lingering travel fears and economic uncertainty. And Las Vegas still represents a good value proposition for budget-conscious travelers," Greff said.
"Still, high-end casino volumes continue to be down year-over-year despite an improving room rate environment, even though high-end play, on the margin, does appears to be improving a bit," Greff said.
Deutsche Bank analyst Marc Falcone agreed that improving fundamentals are driving gaming stocks upward but took issue with declining casino play.
"During May, slot drop (up 5.2 percent), table drop except for baccarat (up 5.6 percent) and baccarat drop (up 5.7 percent) all increased solidly. This is the first time since June 2001 that all of these metrics have been up against a 'normal' month," Falcone said.
October 2002 was up also, but it compared with the first post-Sept. 11, 2001, month which was taken at the time as an encouraging sign that the Strip recovery could have some legs, Falcone said.
"Summer looks strong. We believe trends have continued to improve throughout the second quarter and the summer. We remain comfortable with our second quarter estimates for the big Strip operators," Falcone said.
"Operators should also benefit from a strong special events calendar
(in coming months), especially as many promoters were hesitant to start
concert tours in the April/May time period due to the war," Falcone
said, suggesting there is pent-up demand for meeting space in Las Vegas.
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